At lunch your friend calls you over to see the silver dollar he got while on vacation. He showed you the front (heads) and the back (tails) and said it was really fun to flip.
You watched your friend flip the coin and get tails. He flipped it again and again got tails. He said, "Wow, let's see how many times I can get tails in a row!" Third flip, tails; fourth flip, tails! In fact your friend flipped the coin ten times in a row and got all tails!
Before he flipped the coin the eleventh time, you wondered, "What is the chance that the next flip is tails?"
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